When do volcanoes erupt and is there a predictable pattern?
Julia
Dear Julia,
Volcanoes erupt when the buoyancy of the magma brings it close to the
surface and the gas pressure within the magma exceeds the strength and
weight of the overlying rocks.
Volcanologists are getting better at recognizing the changes in the
volcano prior to an eruption and using this information to predict when
an eruption will start. This assumes the volcano has been monitored. It
helps if the volcano has been studied in detail and past eruptions
observed.
Have a look at these questions and answers in Ask a Volcanologist:
3, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 26, 38, 43, 50, and 56 in 10.
Volcanic Eruptions.
Steve Mattox, University of North Dakota