Which volcano do you predict will erupt next?
Zachary
Hi Zachary,
Fortunately I don't have to predict volcanic eruptions for a living--its worse
than predicting the weather. There are a number of volcanoes around the world
that are always erupting. So I could cheat and tell you one of those and if you
checked you would find out it was erupting and think I had done a great job.
For example, Kilauea here in Hawai'i has been erupting constantly since 1983.
However, if you asked me which volcano that is not erupting now, will erupt next
then I would say I don't know. There are so many that are ready to erupt at any
one time. One that people are keeping an eye on at the moment is in Vanuatu,
and is called Aoba volcano. It has had increased seismicity in recent days, and
the lake in its caldera has been discolored. Many of the people who live nearby have
been evacuated. Keep your eye on the newspapers to see if it does indeed erupt
soon, or use the WWW to check some of the listings for current eruptions.
I hope this gives you an idea for how difficult it is to predict eruptions.
Only the people who are actually studying a particular volcano can really make
good decisions about whether or not it will erupt. Anyone else who uses
statistics, the alignment of the planets, or other crazy techniques is just
making it up!
Sincerely,
Scott Rowland, University of Hawaii
Other Categories
Other Questions
To VolcanoWorld