Could you explain how volcanologists predict when volcanoes will
occur?
David
Hi David,
Are you asking about volcanologists predicting eruptions? We don't really
predict volcanoes since they are already sitting there (in most cases).
If you are asking about predicting eruptions, we've anwered this question
a few times before. Please see the studying volcanoes
section of the "frequently asked questions" section of ask-a-volcanologiet.
Briefly, the main ways to predict an impending eruption are seismicity and
ground deformation. Increases in seismicity at a volcano can mean that
there is magma moving towards the surface. If you have a good network of
seismometers you can actually see the earthquake locations getting
shallower and shallower. This is a very good indicator that an eruption
will happen soon. Additionally, as the magma moves toward the surface it
has to push the surrounding rocks out of the way. This causes these rocks
to deform and causes the surface of the ground to deform as well. With
very careful leveling measurements volcanologists can monitor this
deformation to determine if there is a blob of magma moving towards the
surface that might erupt.
Sincerely,
Scott Rowland
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